The UK market is likely to remain on tenterhooks this week as investors await news on which parties will form the next British government. The most likely scenarios now appear to be either a Lib/Lab coalition, a Lib/Conservative coalition, or the Conservatives going it alone with the help of minor parties. But until a concrete outcome emerges, and decisive action in the fight against our fiscal deficit can be announced, the uncertainty is expected to undermine market performances.
There is plenty more to keep investors occupied beyond UK shores, not to mention the opportunities presented to long-term contrarian investors if volatility continues.
“Despite the short-term uncertainties in the UK, we are investing in a global market and, globally, there are bigger factors at play than the outcome of the UK election,” commented Simon Haines, manager of the Threadneedle Mid UK 250 Fund on Friday. “On the negative side, concerns about debt levels in countries with far more pressing problems than the UK, such as Greece, will continue to weigh on confidence. But on the positive side, the global economy is in recovery mode, growth in Asia and emerging markets is particularly strong and company fundamentals are in good shape. It is worth remembering that 70% of UK corporate earnings come from outside the UK, and companies in the US, Europe and Japan also have considerable exposure to fast-growing emerging markets.”
Returning our spotlight to home soil, insurers could be in play Monday morning as Prudential has reportedly reached an agreement with the Financial Services Authority that will see the insurance giant set up a £1 billion backstop fund to placate concerns over its capital position once it has acquired AIG’s Asian arm, AIA in a $35.5 billion (£24 billion) deal.
Royal Bank of Scotland will also be eyed following weekend reports that Richard Branson’s Virgin Money is no longer in the running to buy more than 300 branches from the part-nationalised bank. The remaining three bidders for the forced sale are Santander, BBVA and National Australia Bank.
Monday
The week is set to start quietly on the corporate front but on the economic front will be kicked off with a delayed announcement from the Bank of England. The Monetary Policy Committee postponed last week’s interest rate and fiscal stimulus decision to avoid any risk that its policy could influence the UK general election. Still, the MPC is widely expected to maintain the status quo, keeping rates at their record low and quantitative easing on hold.
In other economic news, Germany’s balance of trade and current account should provide insight into the health of once of Europe’s strongest member states.
Tuesday
First half results from budget airline easyJet are expected to convey recent struggles for air transport players on Tuesday, as could first quarter numbers from InterContinental Hotels Group.
As the week’s economic agenda starts to fill up, UK investors will have the latest RICS housing market survey, industrial production figures, and the BRC sales monitor to contend with, while Germany’s consumer price index and the ABC consumer confidence reading in the US will present a more global view of economic developments.
Wednesday
The BoE inflation report, combined with the latest data on UK unemployment, will be closely watched for further indications of how robust the economic recovery is looking and whether the UK is strong enough to weather the debt-beating measures proposed by the Conservative government.
On the same day, a flash estimate of the EU’s gross domestic product will provide information on how the economic region is faring as a whole, while Germany’s own GDP estimate will likely juxtapose against information coming from the UK and weaker European states such as Spain and Portugal.
Looking further afield, data due from the US includes the balance of trade, MBA mortgage applications and the Treasury’s Budget statement.
On the corporate front, British food caterer Compass Group will post interims, while oil explorer Tullow Oil and mid-cap housebuilder Barratt Developments will both update the markets with their interim management statements. Full year results from FirstGroup will focus attention on the transport sector, while Barclays shares are likely to feel the pressure of trading exclusive of dividend rights.
Thursday
More news from the travel and leisure industries on Thursday, with interim numbers from holiday operators Thomas Cook Group and Holidaybreak, while Sainsbury’s final results will provide insight into the retail industry. Full-year figures from 3i Group and interims from Euromoney Institutional Investor will represent the investment and financial services arena.
In economic news, the UK will unveil its balance of trade report, while the European Central Bank report comes out of Brussels and the US announces labour market data and import and export price indices.
Friday
Winding down at the end of the week, North America will provide the main focal point for those watching economic indicators. Business inventories, capacity utilisation, industrial production, retail sales and retail sales inventories are all due for release on Friday.